TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Stifel issued a rare double upgrade on April 9, moving from Hold to Buy with a $250 price target, up from $215. The call is contrarian: the stock trades at $287.80, 13% above Stifel's own target, and the consensus is heavily tilted toward Hold (24 of 45 analysts). Stifel has a 67% accuracy rate on 6 calls with a +10.9% average return, placing it among top-tier firms. The broader analyst community has been overwhelmingly positive — 18 Buy/Strong Buy ratings vs. 3 Sell/Strong Sell — but the mean target of $279 implies a 3% downside from current levels. EPS revisions have surged: 22 upward revisions in the past 30 days for the current quarter, with zero downgrades. Insider selling is heavy — five executives sold over $20M in the past week — and short interest sits at a high 56.2% of float. The next earnings report is due July 20, 2026, adding a near-term catalyst. Bottom line: Stifel's double upgrade is a bold contrarian bet, but the price target is below the market, and insider/short signals are bearish. Traders should treat this as a tactical call, not a long-term endorsement.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 45 analysts covering the stock: 7 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 24 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. That's 40% Buy/Strong Buy, 53% Hold, 7% Sell/Strong Sell. The consensus is heavily skewed toward Hold, making Stifel's upgrade a clear outlier.

Current price: $287.80. Mean target: $279.06 (3% downside). Median: $279.00. High: $340 (18% upside). Low: $200 (31% downside). Stifel's $250 target is 10% below the mean and 13% below the current price, making it one of the most bearish targets among Buy-rated analysts.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the past 30 days: 3 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are overwhelmingly positive: 22 upward revisions for the current quarter (0 down), 22 for next quarter (0 down), 27 for the current fiscal year (0 down), and 26 for next fiscal year (0 down). Estimates have been revised up sharply — current quarter EPS rose from $1.56 to $1.92 in 30 days.

Firm Track Record — Stifel

Stifel accuracy: 54% on 2792 calls | avg return: 4.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Stifel has a 67% accuracy rate on 6 calls with a +10.9% average return, ranking as top tier. The best-performing firms on this stock are Baird (80% on 5 calls, +10.2% avg return) and JP Morgan (80% on 5 calls, +8.6%). The worst: TD Cowen (50% on 4 calls, -0.8% avg return) and Susquehanna (50% on 6 calls, +0.1%).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is intense: five executives sold over $20M in the past week, including the CEO ($5.9M) and CFO ($5.6M). Congressman Kevin Hern (R-OK) sold $500K-$1M on March 18. Institutional activity is mixed: Bank of America trimmed 39.4% of its position, while Norges Bank took a new $2.5B stake and Renaissance Technologies initiated a $137M position. Short interest is elevated at 56.2% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The analyst upgrade diverges sharply from insider selling and short interest.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status