ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

BEARISH Impact: 7/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed May 5, 2026 Processed 18d 14h ago SEC 0001670076-26-000049
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Latest settled — T+5d
ULCC ▲ +15.10% at T+5d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -15.10% · α vs SPY -13.12% · entry $4.37 → $5.03
Next anchor: T+20d in 10d
Last close $4.95 (close May 22) · -13.27% from $4.37 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 4, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+9.38%
call -9.38% · α -8.00%
$4.78
settled 18d ago
T+5d
+15.10%
call -15.10% · α -13.12%
$5.03
settled 12d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 10d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

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Executive Summary

Frontier Airlines reported Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $272M ($1.18/share) including $212M in non-recurring charges (early lease termination and TSA reserve). On an adjusted basis, net loss was $68M ($0.30/share), beating the company's own guidance range of ($0.32) to ($0.44) loss per share. Adjusted revenue hit a record $1.065B, up 17% YoY on 1% lower capacity, but the airline faces a severe headwind from jet fuel costs expected to nearly double to $4.25/gal in Q2, driving Q2 guidance for an adjusted loss of ($0.45) to ($0.60) per share.

Actionable Insight

The record adjusted revenue and beat vs internal guidance are overshadowed by the massive fuel cost headwind — jet fuel is expected to jump from $2.88/gal in Q1 to $4.25/gal in Q2, driving a wider adjusted loss. The Q2 guidance of ($0.45)-($0.60) per share is significantly worse than the Q1 adjusted loss of ($0.30). Watch for the Q2 earnings call for updates on fuel hedging, capacity adjustments, and the co-brand credit card extension discussions that management cited as a liquidity support.

Key Facts

  • GAAP net loss of $272M, or $1.18 per diluted share, including $139M early lease termination charge and $73M TSA reserve charge
  • Adjusted (non-GAAP) net loss of $68M, or $0.30 per share, beating guidance of ($0.32) to ($0.44) loss per share
  • Adjusted revenue of $1.065B, an all-time record, up 17% YoY on 1% lower capacity
  • Adjusted RASM (stage-length adjusted) of 10.29 cents, up 17% YoY, at the higher end of guidance
  • Total liquidity of $974M at quarter-end, up $100M from year-end 2025
  • Q2 2026 adjusted loss per share guidance of ($0.45) to ($0.60), with jet fuel cost estimated at $4.25/gallon (up from $2.88 in Q1)
  • Expects $75M to $100M of additional charges in Q2 related to the Early Return Agreement
  • Company not providing full-year 2026 EPS guidance; only providing select items (pre-delivery deposits and capex)
  • Executed agreements to defer 69 Airbus deliveries and early terminate 24 A320neo leases

Financial Impact

Q1 adjusted net loss of $68M; Q2 guided adjusted loss of $0.45-$0.60/share; fuel cost expected to nearly double to $4.25/gal

revenueepsoperating expensesfuel costsliquidity

Risk Factors

  • Jet fuel prices at $4.25/gal in Q2 could further spike, worsening losses
  • Additional $75M-$100M in Early Return Agreement charges in Q2
  • No full-year EPS guidance provided, signaling high uncertainty
  • Adjusted CASM (ex-fuel) rose 22% YoY, indicating cost pressures beyond fuel
  • Valuation allowance against deferred tax assets limits tax benefit from losses

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Air Transportation, Scheduled
Analyst Consensus
0% bullish (17 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001670076-26-000049
Document: fron-20260505.htm0001670076-26-000049
Document: 0001670076-26-000049-index-headers.html0001670076-26-000049
Document: 0001670076-26-000049-index.html0001670076-26-000049
Document: 0001670076-26-000049.txt0001670076-26-000049
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001670076-26-000049
2 reports for ULCC
Performance horizon

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Type Now
May 5, 2026
18d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$4.37 $5.03▼ −15.10%▼ −13.12%$4.95 (−13.27%)
Feb 28, 2026
12w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$4.04 $3.78▼ −6.44%▼ −5.23%$4.95 (+22.52%)
Showing 2 of 2

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Tue (34h 52m)

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