UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC

Price Chart

Executive Summary

B of A Securities double-upgraded UnitedHealth Group (UNH) from Neutral to Buy on June 4, 2026, raising its price target to $450 from $420, implying 19.4% upside from the current $377. The firm, with a 57% accuracy rate on 7 UNH calls and an average return of 1.3%, is now above consensus. Consensus is 74% Buy (26 of 35 analysts), with a mean target of $401.46 and a high of $492. The upgrade is contrarian to a 30-day EPS revision trend that shows 3 downward revisions for the current quarter and 4 for next quarter, though next year's estimates have 6 upward revisions. Insider activity is minimal — one small $284K sell by an officer in late April — while congressional buys (5 small buys from 3 members) and institutional inflows (Norges Bank new $4.4B position, Two Sigma doubling) provide cross-platform support. The upgrade from a mid-accuracy firm with a moderate PT raise is a positive but not exceptional signal; traders should watch for confirmation from earnings on July 27.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is heavily bullish: 74% Buy (26 of 35 analysts: 7 Strong Buy, 19 Buy), 20% Hold (7 analysts), and 3% Sell (1 Strong Sell). The consensus direction is clearly positive, with B of A's upgrade aligning with the majority view.

Current price: $377. Mean target: $401.46 (6.5% upside). Median target: $410.5 (8.9% upside). High target: $492 (30.5% upside). Low target: $287 (23.9% downside). B of A's $450 target is above the mean and median, ranking as the 4th highest among 26 analysts, indicating above-consensus conviction.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (B of A), 0 downgrades. EPS revision trend is mixed: current quarter (0q) has 2 upward and 3 downward revisions in 30 days; next quarter (+1q) has 1 up and 4 down; current year (0y) has 2 up and 3 down; next year (+1y) has 6 up and 1 down. Near-term estimates are being revised lower, but long-term estimates are improving, suggesting a trough narrative.

Firm Track Record — B of A Securities

B of A Securities accuracy: 54% on 3282 calls | avg return: 5.1%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

B of A Securities has a 57% accuracy rate on 7 UNH calls with an average return of 1.3%, placing it above average among covering firms. Top-tier firms on UNH include JP Morgan (67% on 6 calls, avg return 6.5%), HSBC (67% on 3 calls, avg return -8%), and Piper Sandler (67% on 6 calls, avg return 4.7%). Worst performers: Truist Securities (33% on 9 calls, avg return -6.3%), Deutsche Bank (33% on 3 calls, avg return -6.8%), and Bernstein (33% on 3 calls, avg return -5.4%).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: one small $284K sell by officer Conway Patrick Hugh on April 23 — not a strong signal. Congressional activity: 5 small buys from 3 members (Salazar, Khanna, McCormick) in March-April 2026 — mildly bullish. Institutional changes: Norges Bank initiated a massive $4.4B new position, Two Sigma doubled its stake (+690.9% to $49.7M), Cullen Capital added 40.7% ($109.9M). One exit (Causeway Capital). Short interest: 62.9% short ratio on 1.5M shares — elevated but not extreme. The institutional inflows and congressional buys converge with the bullish analyst signal, while the insider sell is negligible.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status