UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Raymond James upgraded UnitedHealth Group (UNH) from Market Perform to Outperform with a $330 price target, a contrarian call as the stock trades at $380.31, 13.2% above its new target. The upgrade is part of an 11-firm cluster on UNH, but Raymond James's target sits well below the consensus mean of $399.73 and median of $400.50, making it one of the most bearish PTs on the street. The firm has a 54% accuracy rate on 1,636 calls with a 3.4% average return, placing it in the middle tier among covering analysts. Consensus is heavily bullish: 26 of 34 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy (76%), with only 7 Holds and 1 Strong Sell. Price targets range from $287 low to $492 high, implying a 5.1% upside to the mean. EPS revisions are modestly positive: +1y estimates saw 7 upward revisions vs 0 down in 30 days, and next-quarter EPS edged up to $3.72 from $3.73 a month ago. Insider activity shows a single $284K sell by an executive on April 23, while congressional trades show four small buys from three members in March-April. Institutional flows are mixed: Norges Bank exited a large position, but TWO SIGMA doubled its stake (+690.9%) and Cullen Capital added 40.7%. The upgrade from a mid-accuracy firm with a below-consensus target is a modest positive signal, but the wide gap between the PT and current price limits conviction.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 34 analysts covering UNH, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy (76%), 7 rate Hold (21%), and 1 rates Strong Sell (3%). The consensus is heavily bullish, with zero Sell ratings. Raymond James's Outperform aligns with the majority direction, but its $330 target is far below the mean.

Mean target is $399.73, median $400.50, high $492, low $287. Current price $380.31 implies 5.1% upside to the mean. Raymond James's $330 target is 17.4% below the mean and sits in the bottom quartile of targets, near the $287 low.

Recent Analyst Activity

No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions are positive: +1y estimates saw 7 upward revisions vs 0 down in 30 days, and next-quarter EPS edged up to $3.72 from $3.73 a month ago. The trend is modestly constructive.

Firm Track Record — Raymond James

Raymond James accuracy: 54% on 1636 calls | avg return: 3.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Raymond James has a 54% accuracy rate on 1,636 calls with a 3.4% average return, placing it in the middle tier. Top performers on UNH include JP Morgan (67% on 6 calls, +6.5% avg return) and Piper Sandler (67% on 6 calls, +4.7%). Worst performers include Truist Securities (33% on 9 calls, -6.3%) and Deutsche Bank (33% on 3 calls, -6.8%).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider activity: one sell of $284K by an executive on April 23, a weak signal per academic literature. Congressional trades: four small buys ($1K-$15K each) from three members (Salazar, Khanna, McCormick) in March-April, a mildly bullish signal. Institutional flows: Norges Bank exited a large position, but TWO SIGMA doubled its stake (+690.9%) and Cullen Capital added 40.7%. Short interest is 62.9% of float, elevated and potentially bearish. The analyst upgrade is partially offset by the insider sell and high short interest, but institutional buying and congressional buys provide some convergence.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status